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[Premium] Daily Commentary: On policy advocacy and forecasting in Greece’s exit from the euro zone
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at May 16th, 2012 -
The euro zone has become a political economy black hole
in Political Economy
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On JPM’s Dimon’s still unassailable position and Facebook as the new Yahoo
in Markets
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[Premium] Amid plummeting trade growth, Chinese productivity trends are macro bearish
in Weekly
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US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average
in Housing
at May 16th, 2012
Featured News
The euro zone has become a political economy black hole
by Edward Harrison
On JPM’s Dimon’s still unassailable position and Facebook as the new Yahoo
by Edward Harrison
Another chart of the day: Greek bank deposits collapse
by Edward HarrisonWeekly»
[Premium] Amid plummeting trade growth, Chinese productivity trends are macro bearish
16 May 2012 13:00-
[Premium] More on the political economy of the coming GrexitIn February I wrote about the political economy of a Greek default (and euro zone exit), predicting that a Grexit...by Edward Harrison on 14 May 2012 15:30 -
[Premium] China’s growth is slowing much faster than expectedThe latest data out of China will give those expecting a soft landing pause about China’s economic situation....by Edward Harrison on 11 May 2012 12:00 -
[Premium] On Europe’s advancing preparations for the GrexitThe evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro...by Edward Harrison on 11 May 2012 08:42 -
[Premium] The European Endgame is within sightEarlier this week I wrote a post called "Europe edges closer to the endgame" in reaction to the French...by Edward Harrison on 9 May 2012 21:17
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[Premium] On my disbelief over the Greek exit chatter
16 May 2012 08:00-
[Premium] Europe is on the brink of something very bigEuro zone bond markets have come completely unhinged this morning. Spanish 10-year yields have hit the highest...by Edward Harrison on 16 May 2012 06:20 -
[Premium] Marc Faber on Euro zone breakup and US and European equitiesMarc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, spoke with Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu. The overall...by Edward Harrison on 10 May 2012 12:51 -
[Premium] On helicopter drops and wealth confiscation in EuropeHugh Hendry made some remarks about confiscation last week that I addressed in my TV appearance on RT’s capital...by Edward Harrison on 9 May 2012 15:18
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[Premium] More on the mean-reverting economic surprise indexA few of the investment banks have a macro or economic surprise index. In March I mentioned Barclays’ version....by Edward Harrison on 9 May 2012 14:55
Daily»
[Premium] Daily Commentary: On policy advocacy and forecasting in Greece’s exit from the euro zone
16 May 2012 21:18-
[Premium] Daily commentary: On JPMorgan’s gigantic mistakeThe big headline today is still JPMorgan Chase and it’s huge trading losses. Clearly this is a black eye...by Edward Harrison on 14 May 2012 16:36 -
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the Spanish bank bailoutsIn the links today are a lot of links in both English and Spanish about the bailout of Spain’s fourth largest...by Edward Harrison on 10 May 2012 12:43 -
[Premium] Daily commentary: On monetary policy in a balance sheet recessionThere has been a lot of back and forth by academic economists on monetary policy. The reason is two-fold. First,...by Edward Harrison on 9 May 2012 14:00
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[Premium] Daily commentary: The fiscal cliffI owe you all a post on the European elections. And my weekly will probably cover that topic since it is the most...by Edward Harrison on 8 May 2012 08:12
Free Articles
The euro zone has become a political economy black hole
Without going into the detail of my member posts, here’s what I can say: it is clear Greece will eventually exit the euro zone. The question is the timing. But, the political about-face necessary to prevent contagion is a lot larger than politicians are now prepared to take
On JPM’s Dimon’s still unassailable position and Facebook as the new Yahoo
I spoke to Paul Waldie and Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail on BNN’s headline on Monday. The big story was JPMorgan Chase and the London Whale trades. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon, as the leading lobbyists for the hands-off regulatory approach for US banks, has become a lightning rod for criticism of too big to fail banks in the US. Even so, I think it’s unlikely that Dimon will be forced out of his position. We also talked about Yahoo and the oversubscribed Facebook IPO. They are going to have to execute really, really well to justify the IPO valuation
US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average
Housing starts in the US were up today. The Wall Street Journal writes that number came in at 717,000, up from a low of 478,000 in April
Another chart of the day: Greek bank deposits collapse
The chart below via Reuters’ Scott Barber is what an economic depression looks like. It covers Greek bank deposits from 1998 to present
Chart of the day: The German-Spanish 10 Year Spread is at an all time high
Spanish bond yields are spiking with no obvious reason to believe they will come down anytime soon. That puts the Spanish-German 10-year spread at an all time high
Will the Greek exit be voluntary or involuntary?
Ever more voices are talking about the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone despite the fact that there is no formal mechanism for a euro are member country to exit the single currency. This talk, however, makes sense because Greece’s situation is untenable economically and politically. The Grexit is a question of when and how not if
Spain: EU estimates for contraction now considerably deeper
This is not a good day for Spain. The day began with the EU Commission revising its estimates for the Spanish economy. The contraction is now expected to be considerably deeper. Spain unveiled its new efforts to address the banking problems. It is the fourth one since the crisis began and the second one since Rajoy became PM. Spain is forcing the banks to boost their loan loss provisions on real estate loans by 30 bln euros. They have already put aside about 54 bln euros. The Center for European Policy Studies warns that bank losses could be as high as 380 bln euros. Moody’s estimates Spanish bank losses could be around 305 bln euros
Super SGP coming – ECB: “A stronger and stricter fiscal framework is required”
The long-held view in German policy circles has been that the European sovereign debt crisis is a clear indication that the stability and growth pact (SGP) was not sufficiently robust in addressing fiscal discipline. The ECB is now addressing this with a policy paper
Chart of the Day: Euro zone GDP by country
This chart was attached to a very good front page article in today’s Wall Street Journal by Marcus Walker on How a Radical Greek Rescue Plan Fell Short. The article gives a blow-by-blow account on how the Greek crisis has unfolded and a detailed view on where each of the Greek and European leaders stood on various issues involved in Greece’s debt restructuring. The chart itself demonstrates the enormous gulf between the size of the German economy and other economies in Europe, giving some sense of why the Germans (and the French) have come to dominate European policy discussions
Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth
The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly to income contraction
Achuthan: The US will be in recession by the end of next month
Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC’s Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look
Spiegel: Kohl-era German documents reveal euro formation was about politics
“The German government has, for the first time, released hundreds of pages of documents from 1994 to 1998 on the introduction of the euro and the inclusion of Italy in the euro zone.”